The January transfer window is arriving at the perfect time for Brentford. Over the past couple of months, they have been stuck in a never-ending injury crisis.
The moment someone returns from the treatment table, somebody else winds up taking their place. The only benefit of this vicious cycle is that B-team prospects Yehor Yarmoliuk, Michael Olakigbe and Myles Peart-Harris have played more minutes than they expected.
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Thomas Frank has managed the situation to the best of his ability, but Brentford have lost five of their last six matches. Next month gives them a chance to improve their squad for the second half of the season.
Brentford’s last three January window spends
2021: £2m ($2.5m)
2022: £0
2023: £0
Kevin Schade (on loan) was one of Brentford’s few January signings (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)How much money is likely to be available?
Since they won the Championship play-off final in May 2021, Brentford have not made any significant money through player sales. They should receive around £30million when David Raya’s loan move to Arsenal becomes permanent, but there is no indication when that might happen.
Brentford’s finances are in a healthy state though and they can spend if needed. Their failed attempt to sign Johan Bakayoko from PSV Eindhoven, for what would have been a record fee of €40m, during the final week of the summer transfer window is proof of that.
Recent history tells us Brentford do not spend a lot of money in January and prefer to wait to do their main business, yet you should not forget they did try to sign Brennan Johnson and Keane Lewis-Potter for significant fees two years ago. Brentford will try to get any potential deals completed early to avoid the madness of the last couple of weeks of the window.
Who makes the key decisions about signings?
Four people play crucial roles in Brentford’s recruitment strategy. It starts with technical director Lee Dykes, who will instruct his scouts to identify potential targets. This will be a combination of live scouting and analysing how players perform across different data metrics.
When a target has been identified, Frank and his coaching staff will be brought into the process to offer their opinion and see if they like the player. Then it is the responsibility of the director of football Phil Giles to negotiate with the player’s agent and the selling club to hopefully complete a deal. Owner Matthew Benham oversees all of this and will give his blessing to new signings.
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Frank is less involved than head coaches at other clubs, but he told The Athletic’s audio documentary Access All Areas: Brentford: “If Matthew feels that I don’t like the player, then he hugely respects that. That’s crucial because I need to put him on the pitch. But most of the time, when we sign a player, like (Aaron) Hickey, for example, I was big on him as well as Matthew, Phil, Lee and the coaches. That’s the easy one.”
Frank said loans could be a possibility in January (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)What are the priority positions?
If Brentford want to finish in the top 10, then they need more firepower to keep up with their better-equipped rivals and it is important to keep one eye on the future. Ivan Toney returns from his eight-month suspension for betting offences in a few weeks, but it feels like his long-term future lies elsewhere, while Bryan Mbeumo’s performances will not have gone unnoticed by other teams.
Defence is the area of the squad which has suffered the most. Kristoffer Ajer (foot) and Hickey (hamstring) are not expected to return until the new year, while Rico Henry should miss the rest of the season after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL); Mads Roerslev is the only fit natural full-back.
With Ajer and Hickey hopefully not too far away from full fitness, the club might decide they don’t need an extra body or could opt for a short-term solution. They are not panicking after Mbeumo picked up an ankle injury which will rule him out for three months, but it adds another layer of complexity to their predicament.
“We are never rushing into things, we try to be clever and take calm, sensible decisions and we will do the same in January,” Frank said before the 2-1 defeat against Aston Villa on December 17. “So we will not take a player if we don’t think it’s for the longer term, but maybe this time a loan, it depends how things go in the next three, four weeks.”
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What do we know about who the targets might be?
Brentford were interested in signing Granada’s Bryan Zaragoza. The 22-year-old has been in exceptional form this season and scored both goals in a 2-2 draw with Barcelona. The Spain international had a small release clause in his contract, which means he would have been cheaper than alternative targets. However, Bayern Munich swooped in and have agreed to sign Zaragoza in the summer.
Bryan Zaragoza is set to join FC Bayern! 🔴⚪
🔗 https://t.co/ShPCo6oQ5u#MiaSanMia pic.twitter.com/QTry3HR6hK
— FC Bayern Munich (@FCBayernEN) December 6, 2023
There are two ways to look at this problem. You could see it as a huge compliment and sign of Brentford’s progress that they are competing against the German champions for players. Or you could be worried because Brentford need a better quality of player to reach the next level, but the outlay on transfer fees and wages required to get them is excessive.
Another example of this is the stumbling block for Bakayoko’s proposed move in the summer, which was PSV Eindhoven’s qualification for the Champions League group stages. The 20-year-old directly contributed to two goals in six appearances and looked impressive in a 1-1 draw with Arsenal earlier this month, which has surely raised his price.
Brentford are shopping in a smaller pool of higher-quality players compared to when they were in the Championship and these deals are complex to pull off.
Who could be on their way out?
Toney’s future will be a huge talking point throughout January, but the club intends to keep him. Frank and his coaching staff would not have come up with such a detailed plan to get him fully fit if their first choice was to sell him to the highest bidder. With Yoane Wissa off to the Africa Cup of Nations while Schade and Mbeumo recover from long-term injuries, losing Toney would leave them short up front.
The counterargument is that Brentford should comfortably avoid relegation and selling Toney in January might be wiser than waiting until the summer when he will only have a year left on his contract.
Josh Dasilva and Shandon Baptiste are two talented players who have been frustrated by injuries over the past couple of seasons. They enter the final six months of their contracts in January and would be free to speak to foreign teams, although the club has one-year options they can trigger with both of them.
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Charlie Goode has suffered from injuries, too, but now he is fully fit again, a loan move in January could represent a good opportunity to kickstart his career.
(Top photo: Bakayoko, left, and Ivan Toney; Getty Images)
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